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Whether it's the changing of the sheets or a changing of the guard, it doesn't take much to suggest vast conspiracy at Toronto City Hall. Witness the departure of Shirley Hoy, Toronto's long-serving city manager, and Mayor David Miller's announcement that he'd like to forgo a national search for her replacement and promote her second-in-command, Joe Pennachetti.

The questions swirl: was there a rift between mayor and city manager? When Miller was talking, earlier this year, about new powers including specifically the ability to fire city managers, was he really talking about Hoy? When he talked about the power to hire, was he thinking of Pennachetti?

Is it all a massive administrative power-grab by a mayor gone mad?

Or is it a barely-gracious exit by a long-time civil servant who's just gotten mad, operating in a politicized civil service that's seen a bit of an exodus of high-level bureaucrats in the past few months?

There's no doubt another theory involving the Freemasons and Jack the Ripper floating around.

But in the interests of space, let's leave that one for later, and just take a look at these two interpretations, both of which have been put forward more vocally the past few days.

Because it's not as though there's nothing to them. While Hoy and Miller have generally gotten along, and both vociferously denied any suggestions that there's tension between them, sources at City Hall do indicate that there was a smidgen.

Last year's "cost containment" exercise after the delay of the land transfer tax vote was uncomfortable; the communications debacle earlier this year over a half-hidden plan to increase fees for recreation programs and hockey rink rentals was far more so.

But it's a question of glass one-tenth empty or nine-tenths full.

Hoy has little to be ashamed of and much to be proud of in her seven-year tenure in charge of Toronto's civil service. She's seen Toronto successfully through a blackout and SARS outbreak; she helped develop the new City of Toronto Act and presided over a massive administrative reorganization in the early years of Miller's mayoralty. In the months before she departs, she'll be finishing off the city's end of the Provincial Municipal Fiscal and Service Delivery Review, which if successful will put in place a timetable for the reversal of the provincial downloading.

Is she leaving mad? There's no indication of that - but she's no doubt leaving tired, of the 12-hour days and seven-day weeks of work.

And is the mayor mad? It's unlikely - given that his choice for her successor is her deputy, Joe Pennachetti, who has been labouring at her side on every one of those files.

One thing that is certain - in choosing Pennachetti so publicly and so swiftly, the mayor has made up his mind on the direction for the city, and he's making it no secret.

There are good reasons for this, administratively and politically.

Toronto is on its way to becoming a mature city, and with a second-term mayor in place, it's well set on its course. For better or worse, Miller and his majority on council have decided on the way the city will collect garbage, repair and expand its transportation and water infrastructure, attract and keep business, tax its residents and look after its disadvantaged. Now, it's just a matter of doing all of those things as efficiently and effectively as possible.

So administratively, it makes sense to have a bureaucrat who's familiar with the lay of the city, has had at least a hand in setting the direction, and has the sort of discipline that, say, a chief financial officer might have developed over the course of managing a chronically under-funded municipality like Toronto. Pennachetti's appointment will send a message to staff that outcomes are paramount.

And politically? Well, simply by pushing a preference, Miller is sending a message too; the same one he's been repeating since his re-election in 2006: that the agenda remains in the mayor's office. And that anyone who disagrees can try and vote him down at council.

It's not much of a conspiracy, but it will have to do.